I reckon the world as we know it will be ending shortly. I’ve felt this for some time now. I think it started back when I was a kid, but I first got a solid sense of it in 1988, when I was 23. What am I talking about here? The World War III notion that’s been kicking around since the 1950s? Not really, no. The biblical Apocalypse/Armageddon idea that was supposed to happen in the year 2000? Perhaps, but not exactly. How about the ecological meltdown that the environmentalists have been warning us is due any day? Entirely possible, but I’m not sure. In fact, I really have no solid sense of the actual nature of this event. I just know it’s coming. Furthermore, I think I know when it’s coming. Sometime around 2012. I know I’m not the only person in the world to believe that – there’s an entire sub-culture of people out there that have a thing about 2012. I’m not really one of them. As I said, I’ve felt like this since at least the 80s, probably the 70s. There was no such sub-culture around back then, nor do I exchange ideas with such people. This is just me. It started with my dreams. I’m not the sort of person that has recurring patterns in my dreams, with one significant exception. I’ve had at least 30 dreams in my life about the end of the world, starting from when I was a young lad. The world never ends the same way (which is probably why I can’t get a sense of the nature of the event), but one thing is always consistent – in my dream I know a way out. Somehow I have some information with which I can escape the impending disaster. I can even take people with me – my loved ones. In my dreams this makes me some sort of leader of men – “the guy that knows the way out”. For this reason I’ve never had any sort of fear surrounding this disaster (if “disaster” is the right word). My feelings around the notion are that somehow I’ll be okay. I know that in my gut. Whatever happens, I’ll have some sort of knowledge that will allow me to escape the doom of most of the people around me. When I went to New York in 1988, I got off the plane, checked into a hostel, and went for a wander around Times Square. I was amazed at the energyof the place, the bustle and life in the city. Then, out of nowhere, the words came into my head, “25 years. It won’t last for more than 25 years.” I was quite taken aback by this feeling, this sense, but I trusted it and never forgot it. 25 years after 1988 is, of course, 2013. I didn’t really think like that at the time, but later I began to. Over the next few years, I started looking more closely at society – Western society, that is – and noticed a couple of things:
- We are living unsustainably. One day I realised what all thinking people eventually realise if they contemplate our society long enough – that it’s entirely unsustainable. We’re consuming the natural resources that we need to live, at a rate that can’t be maintained for much longer. I’m not saying anything new here. We all know this, so I won’t go on about it too much – except to offer this analogy that I quite like: Picture a train, barreling down a track. Just over the horizon is a big canyon or river, and the bridge – the railway bridge across the river – is down (perhaps dismantled to be used as fuel for the train). The train is not just hurtling down the track – it’s accelerating. There are a few people on board who know about the missing bridge, and some of them are actively trying to slow down the train in whatever way they can. Some are even talking to the driver, trying to convince him to slow down. But there’s not enough of them, and the train continues to accelerate. More people are becoming aware of the problem every day, but the train is now going so fast, and the broken bridge is so close, that even if every person on the train (including the driver) wanted to stop the train, they wouldn’t be able to. The train is the human race – or at least Western society.
- Our society is extremely delicate. There are a whole range of ways that our society could, quite literally, collapse in on itself. The factors could be:
- Financial: The merest fluctuations in the perceptions of the investors in the stock markets of the world can have significant effects on the market – it would be all too easy for another great depression to happen again. But the disaster I’m talking about would be a couple of orders of magnitude greater than a great depression.
- Social: How long do you suppose it’s going to be until the “have-nots” of the world decide that the “haves” of the world should be obliged to do a little sharing?
- Technological: I can imagine one single technological invention that could disrupt the entire socio-economic fabric of our lives. Western society literally wouldn’t survive its invention. I’m talking about instantaneous travel. Walk through a door and be somewhere else in the world (you know, “Beam me up, Scottie,” and all that). There are probably several other inventions that could have an equally profound effect – this is just one. At this point, I’m fairly sure that most of you reading this don’t believe me, that you haven’t thought about it long enough to see the ramifications if such an invention were let loose on the world. I’m not going to try to convince you, but try this for starters: 25% of the world’s industry is devoted to transportation. Do you think it’s possible to maintain the status quo when 25% of the world’s industry becomes redundant overnight? How about this: With an invention like that, there would be no more need for people to live in cities, and the notion of a “country” would disappear in a few years. I’ll say no more on the subject…
- Scientific/Philosophical/Spiritual: Surely it’s got to happen someday – someone will discover a scientific, philosophical or spiritual truth so profound that it will shake mankind to his foundations.
As I began to realise all of this, I started to think more and more about the dreams I’d had throughout my life, and about the feelings I got in Times Square that day. It was around that time I discovered the ancient Mayans and their calendar. Amazing race, the Mayans. Especially their astronomy. Apparently they were so good at reading the universe that they could predict certain astronomical events (such as eclipses) with an accuracy that modern science only caught up with around 1940. Now the Mayans didn’t measure the passing of time the same way we did, meaning that they didn’t use words like “decade”, “century” or “millennium”. These measurements are based on powers of 10: 1 decade = 10 years, 1 century = 10×10 years, 1 millennium = 10x10x10 years, which is all fairly arbitrary when you think about it – denoting major milestones in time according to how many fingers we have on our hands… The Mayans did it differently. Their measurements were less connected to our bodies and more connected to the actual events in the skies (just like our days, months and years are). Their largest unit of measurement of time was called the “Great Cycle”, which lasted 5,130 years. The end of one Great Cycle and the beginning of a new one signified to the Mayans a period of great change in the world. The Great Cycle that we’re currently in actually ends quite soon – on December 21st, 2012, to be precise. When I learned that, it gave me pause for thought. Now I’m not a great believer in the cosmic significance of arbitrary calendar dates (remember the anti-climax of the year 2000? No apocalypse in sight!), but that date resonated so strongly with my own feelings that I couldn’t dismiss it out of hand. In 1999 I discovered the prophecies of an old Apache wise-man called Stalking Wolf (or Grandfather) as he was known to his loved ones. Grandfather had made 106 prophecies, and 99 have come true (so far). Of these, four concerned the destruction of man, and the first three had already come true. The final one would begin on “The night of the red skies”, when “the stars would bleed”. After that night, there would be exactly “four seasons” (one year) until the end. When the end came, only those people that had already returned to the land and were living as “Children of the Earth” would survive. Grandfather did not say when this “night of the red skies” would occur, but if the timeframe of the previous prophecies is any guide, it will be soon (the next few years). I’m not one to believe in prophecies, but I’m not one to disbelieve them either. I believe that certain people have the gift of prophecy – the trick is knowing who those people are and being able to distinguish them from the people who want you to believe they have the gift (or their followers). Anyway, that was enough for me. Dreams, New York, the Mayans and finally Grandfather’s prophecies. They all ganged up on me and I’m now a believer. Perhaps I should don a sandwich board that reads “The End is Nigh!” and walk up and down High Street tolling a bell and scaring little children. Or perhaps I should just write something on a website… So how do I think it’s going to happen? What will be the nature of this “change”? Well, that’s a tricky one. It would seem that whatever it is, it has to be something that’s significant for the entire species, not just Western society. If the United States suffered a catastrophic financial meltdown, it would certainly take many countries of the developed (and developing) world down with it, like Australia, Japan, Israel and any other country that relies upon the States for it’s economic livelihood. But there are a whole host of countries that would continue largely unaffected – China, India, most of Africa and South America – even Europe. My sense of this thing – this “change” – is that it has to be something truly significant, something that’s never happened before in the recent history (last 5,000 years) of the planet. So the collapse of one little empire doesn’t cut it. The only things I can think of – things that would affect mankind and the planet as a whole – are:
- Ecological disaster – which seems increasingly likely, when you think about it. Ozone layer, global warming, deforestation, melting ice caps, pollution, etc etc – it’s a disaster waiting to happen.
- Nuclear holocaust. That certainly fits the bill, but I can’t see it happening.
- Biological disaster – some sort of plague (man-made or just man-induced) that decimates 90% of the population
- Alien invasion. Hey, it’s a possibility…
- Or that technological/philosophical/spiritual revolution that I spoke of earlier. Think of it as some sort of cultural shift that lifts us up to the next level of our evolution.
Which will it be? Probably something so left-field I can’t even imagine it. I had a wonderful conversation with my friend Sophie the other day. Sophie is an environmentalist. And by that I don’t mean a tree-hugging greenie, but a professional who works with organisations to affect change for the benefit of the environment. I admire her work, but I can’t help but feel that it’s all a little futile. That train continues to accelerate, after all. I consider myself as environmentally conscious as the next person, but I personally believe that it’s all “too little too late”. The rampant consumerism of Western society is growing much faster then the environmentalists’ effectiveness. I told Sophie this (I do that), and she wasn’t too impressed with my viewpoint. Fair enough, I guess. No-one likes being told that their wonderfully generous life’s work is futile. She was even less impressed when I told her this next bit: I actually want this to happen. This goes beyond not being afraid of it happening – I almost can’t wait. I don’t really care what form this ending takes – ecological or otherwise – I want it to happen, and I want it to happen in my lifetime. The way we live today is a great sadness to me. I’ll be even sadder if I wake up one day twenty years from now and it’s all still the same: Unadulterated consumerism, blood being spilled on my TV by people claiming their god is better than someone else’s god, insurance companies getting rich off our fear, nothing to live for but the prospect of having more stuff, etc, etc. We all wonder what is the meaning of Life. Hardly surprising. I simply wonder what is the meaning of that life. So I’m looking forward to this “change”. If it happens to be an ecological meltdown and six billion people die – well, so be it. If I’m one of them, and so is everyone I love, then that’s okay too. Naturally I’ll try to avoid that part (my dreams tell me I’ll even succeed), but if it happens, it happens. Would that be a bad thing? No, I’m not a sociopath. I just don’t see 90% of the human race dying as a bad thing. I don’t see it as a good thing either. It’s just – the natural way of things. Assume for a moment that our end is an ecological one. In other words, mankind has fouled up the natural balance of the planet so severely that he makes it uninhabitable for himself. The Earth’s ecosystems, after centuries of stress, finally break down and “kill” the species that caused the breakdown. This is bad? Imagine a maniac walking down your street shooting a gun randomly around him as he walks, simply because he likes the sound of gunfire. He’s killing someone every few minutes, occasionally the neighbourhood children. Then, accidentally, one of his bullets ricochets back off a lamppost and kills him. Who amongst us wouldn’t secretly think, “Thank God for that!” even if we publicly proclaimed his death as a tragedy. Look at the big picture for a moment – the really big picture. The planet spawns a species that is so rampantly successful that it starts to eliminate thousands of other species. It’s so stupid that it doesn’t see the inherent problem in this, and continues doing it until it eventually eliminates itself. Balance is restored, and the planet lives happily ever after (until the next one). Interestingly, the balance was never upset in the first place. Mankind may well be a cancer on the planet (as a lot of people believe), but cancers exist for a reason…. Let’s go to an absolute worst case scenario. We send up every nuke we own in an orgy of destruction, and decimate all life on the planet. There’s not a single living thing left on the surface of the planet. It takes 10 million years before Life gets going again. (Actually, I very much doubt it would take that long, what with the oceans being full of life, and oceans being extremely difficult things to kill.) But what’s 10 million years in the life of a planet? The merest blip! It’s a couple of days in bed with a fever. Are we really so arrogant that we think we can destroy an entire planet? Maybe one day we can, but that day’s not today, certainly not with simple over-consumption and toxic waste. Anyway, I don’t think it will be anywhere near that bad. In fact, I don’t think it will be too bad at all. Most people find change difficult, so a Really Big Change will be really difficult (for some). But “difficult” doesn’t mean “bad” (ask any mother who’s just given birth). Surely if we’re moving to the next phase of our evolution (even if it’s forced upon us by an ecological disaster) then it can only be a “good” thing. To summarise, I don’t know what “it” is, but I want it to happen, I feel pretty sure it’s going to happen, and I think I’m going to survive it. Comments? Thoughts?
Gageless Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit Gageless
“I (still have) this vision of how unrecognisable the human race will become over the next thousand years or so. I planned to write some sort of future history of mankind. But I never finished it.”
– Better hurry. According to this thread, you’ve only got 7 more years.
Actually, this type of contradiction seems to be a recurring theme in your writings and it’s not good. It dismays me the way you start this thread with an assertion that “I reckon the world as we know it will be ending shortly.
” and finish by backing down into “I feel pretty sure it’s going to happen, and I think I’m going to survive it.”
The basis of philosophy is the ability to argue a point right through to the end. I hate to break it to you, but you don’t get to survive this assertion. You won’t. If it ends, you end too! Sorry if that’s a shock to you but this story has no hero!
Back to the thread…
Prophecies, people proclaiming the death of a killer as a tragedy… surely you can think of better ways to defend your assertion.
I’ve only got one quick point here as I’m at work and there ain’t the time to formulate a response. I disagree that the future of the race is inexplicably linked to natural resources. Don’t forget the sheer adaptability of the body and the human spirit. Remember that we’ve survived an ice age – definable as the absolute scarcity of natural resources. Now, with the technological ability to develop alternatives, we can overcome further scarcities… if our governments let us, though that is for another thread
Further reading: Popul Vuh (the definitive handbook of Mayan mythology). Oh, and avoid anything by Rigoberta Menchu, the Quiche Mayan who spent all her time documenting the plight of her people before moving to the US to live in a rather large home on the proceeds of her book. Lago de Atitlan is but a memory to her now.
Mark Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit Mark
To answer a couple of points:
You wrote, “The basis of philosophy is the ability to argue a point right through to the end. I hate to break it to you, but you don’t get to survive this assertion. You won’t. If it ends, you end too! Sorry if that’s a shock to you but this story has no hero!”
Please note that I did not write, “The world is going to end.” I wrote, “The world as we know it is going to end.” In other words, after (roughly) 2012, the way we live, the way we think, the way the human race behaves – all this will have changed. Not “gone/ended” – changed. Maybe billions of people will die, and maybe no-one at all will die. Maybe the world will actually be a better place…
You wrote “Prophecies, people proclaiming the death of a killer as a tragedy – surely you can think of better ways to defend your assertion.”
Not really, no. I’m describing my own feelings, my own senses. That’s all I’ve got. That’s all any of us have got. Anyone who claims to have anything better upon which to base a prediction of the future is deluded or lying. (Note: I’m not claiming that people can’t predict the future. I’m sure some people can. All I’m saying is that anyone who does it is only ever basing it on their feelings.)
You wrote: “I disagree that the future of the race is inexplicably linked to natural resources.”
I never said it was! I explicitly said I have no idea what’s going to happen – what’s going to change – in 2012.
You wrote: “Don’t forget the sheer adaptability of the body and the human spirit. Remember that we’ve survived an ice age – definable as the absolute scarcity of natural resources. Now, with the technological ability to develop alternatives, we can overcome further scarcities – if our governments let us, though that is for another thread.”
I entirely agree.
Thanks for the most welcome feedback!
Bro Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit Bro
I love that you put this stuff up there Bro – I’m always proud of being your Bro… In many ways we both don’t fit in to these very different paradigms of society that we live and work in but we will always be Bros. I LOVE YOU.
reg Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit reg
I reckon that the Bush administration is Militarily the strongest power on the planet now, unfortunately ,which was voted into office by a majority of Americans who saw policies that meant jobs,but which continue to fuck the environment up.
Many countries governments through time proven fear of war of an invading foe ,continue to support U.S doctrine, as fear of an invading foe outweighs fear of environmental apocalypse.
Like your train this continues. Maybe in 2013 something may happen that will make enough people wake up and vote for a power that doesn”t need to keep the economic train running so fast. But untill something big happens it”s a catch 22 situation for governments to focus on the changes needed to place people and the environment into harmony.
I admire your website. It”s a very entertaining and highly educational, thought provoking medium. Top stuff, Reg xx
galvanize Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit galvanize
u are really wierd, i don’t understand u, am v confused
Paul Klemes Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit Paul Klemes
What I reckon is that you ought to got to Spit Cycles and let ’em give your bike the once over and then give up. Just get a new bike. Bikes have changed so much since you got that one that so just don’t worry about changing that one cog in the cluster, it’s much easier to just get a new bike.
see ya Paul
Bloke Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit Bloke
I arrived from work early today. Quiet house. So much on the to-do list. Go for a bike ride? Nah. Let’s finally check this website. Impressed! Still sitting here 40 minutes later. And responding!
I like the way you write Mark. So easy to read and so fucking interesting. I’m hungry for more. And everything Bro said I double that. Hi Bro.
Your dreams are being achieved right here right now. I can see it/feel it happening. You’re writing and people are reading you. And this is just the beginning.
I loved your analogy with the the train. This is something I’ve thought true in our world for some time but never quite stopped for long enough to express it.
When I move to L.A. I buy a car. Even though I’m an environmentalist (this time I am talking about the tree hugging variety) and disagree with this form of transportation, I still am forced to buy one because there ain’t no other way to get around. You’ll get your ass runned over if you don’t get one. It’s a matter of survival to join the club. I’ve just added fuel to the train.
What I reckon is that if we had a referendum to decide on whether the automobile should be abolished, I’d be the first to vote, “Yes, get rid of it”. Think of the pluses. A lot less smog, quiet roads with so much more room for bikes, pedestrians, mums with strollers. Fitter people, less heart disease. Less noise, less danger to life and limb.
Yes I know we’d have to work out ways in which to transport our elderly and disabled. And we’d have to work out how to keep the supplies coming in to feed our hungry mouths and minds. And how would those people who live a hundred miles from work be able to get there and back without the quick car. What a ridiculous notion- driving for two hours per day to work and back just because we can. If there was no automobile we’d think differently. We wouldn’t try to get to three different parties on a Saturday night. We’d sit happily at the nearest one and see what the universe brought our way. We’d think twice about zipping up to Chatswood for a couple of hours to exchange a shirt. You’d incorporate it into a day trip for when you had built up a few items of business. Back to the work-travel debacle. I get in my car in Avalon and drive to my work in Parramatta while some other poor bastard who lives in Parramatta drives to Avalon to open his shop. We wave at each other as we pass in St.Ives.
If only it was taken out of our hands. If only we were forced to stop using our cars. We’d make changes. We’d get by. And then we’d marvel at how beautiful our city is and think back to how it was and shake our heads. That’s what I reckon so moderate that.
Thanks Mark love Me Bloke
Kaz Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit Kaz
Well I reckon that this is most interesting; reading all of the thoughts regarding the year 2012!
I know very little about the Mayans and the prophecies regarding this time, but Mark I really hope that it’s true and I know that I am going to be awaiting the night of the red skies with anxiety, nervousness and excitement! I hope that I am still part of this life to experience it.
I don’t mind admitting knowing little about much, but I do know that I sincerely hope that there is a change in the way of the world and the way we live our lives.
I’m reading a philosophy book about the shortness of life, and it’s really refreshing me. A particular part of interest is that; we know for sure our past, our present ticks on by moulding the past, present and future all into one! but the future is a particular interest as it highlights, how different our lives may be if we knew exactly when we were going to die. And I think that this is so true. If we knew our future like we know our past, how different would we do things?
Being a lover of life, it saddens me to observe our lives and how we get ourselves caught in endless traps of what seems to me to be meaningless. Don’t get me wrong, I am as guilty as we all are for often losing sight of what I BELIEVE to be important.
I feel refreshed today and am grateful for who I am and all that I have
(I have nothing and I have everything) …and it makes me smile… a smile of absolute satisfaction : )
If the prophecy is true (and I really hope that it is) and we have seven years to go, whether I survive it or not (and I hope that I do) I am going to make this forthcoming seven years the best bloody seven years I’ve ever had!
Like it says in the book, live everyday as if it were your last…embrace the time you have.. because who knows when it’s all about to go tits up!
That’s what I reckon…
Rohan Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit Rohan
I like the train analogy too. Unless you are one of the ‘haves’ there is just no way no way to get off. Maybe I’m a prisoner of my own imagination, but I need $$ to buy the land so that I can grow my vegies and erect a Teepee. That doesnt mean I dont want my pharmaceuticals and all the other trappings of a modern society. I think that so long as humans are capable, they will always strive to improve their circumstance… at whatever the cost… I like the saying that we are only 48 hours from anarchy..its not my quote, but its relevant. Society could be quickly reduced to large-scale disorder, including looting and rioting in the event of a catastrophe that stops the supply of food. Hmmm must go and stock up on baked beans.
Vegemite never goes out of date.
John Klemes Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit John Klemes
When I was five I would go for walks in the forests of Brno with my Father. Every now and then we would hear the sound of a motor approaching. It would be one of them new automobiles that were replacing the horse drawn cart for rich people. My Father had explained to me about the internal combustion engine, how it mixes fuel and air to create little explosions which push the moving parts around. Upon hearing the sound in the forest I would run headlong towards the edge of the forest, to the road. The automobile would whizz by and I would then enter the road, nose held high, and sniff the air deeply to experience the sweet remnants of the tiny explosions made by this fantastic new modern-time invention.
plenipotentiary22 Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit plenipotentiary22
And so you have dreamed Mark. I am impressed. In return I shall share with you what I have come to know of this ….
The Mayan calendar finishes at the end of the 12th long year. The sun will be positioned at the very centre of the milky way. The effect that this will have on the rotation of this planet, on our tides, on our seasons, is unclear.
What is clear, is that we are going to go through the band of twinkling lights …. going to go through the light.
Another level of consciousness ….
It will be the start of the 13th long year. The meaning of 13 in numerology is represented by the card of death in the tarot deck. It was originally depicted as the skelton in the field with a sythe, cutting down the the heads with crowns. Hands and feet spring up from the ground behind it. In the background is a woman’s head with the hair flowing everywhere.
The meaning of the card is that the current order of rule will be over turned. That what lies beneath springs up and takes on the leadership role. And that we leave the patriarical system behind. Adopt a more feminine approach to life. Nuture instead of conquer.
“We” as a human race have “known” for a long time now that this is coming ….
It is not the end of the planet, for that has existed for a long time and will continue to exist, with or without us. Should we expect the collapse of what we know prior to 2012? Absolutely. One look at our world as it is shows it is already showing the signs of strain … chaotic weather patterns, increased aggitation of the people …
The current way of being is untenable. Our attitude to resources is that we must be able to own it or it has no value. Boundaries are at best natural landforms that divide the landscape and at worst arbitrary lines drawn on a map. It is on par with Intellectual Property and Patents … the ownership of thoughts. How can you own a thought when it is not truly original, is based on the amalgamation of other ideas had before you? How can you say you “designed” a living form and say you own it when all you did was rearrange a few parts (eg Genetic engineering)? How can you own land when you are only passing through this world?
It is not in our interests to have a standard of living that requires people to be repressed and oppressed so that you are able to buy two shirts for $10 for example. Lets think of buying a shirt. If you buy it from a large chain store with branding on it you are paying for the brand. In a lot of cases it was made for next to nothing by someone who can barely feed their family. The difference is mostly profit. So, even though you don’t know how it was made, you are never the less consenting to and funding the sweat shops by buying it. What has never been said is that you also stop someone, maybe your neighbour, maybe even yourself, from having a satisfying career doing what they /you love … making clothes.
And so on. Clothing, art, music, furniture, transport, food ……. there is someone near you struggling to make a living doing what they love (or working in something they hate to pay the bills) while someone else gets paid millions for mass production. Who needs millions? If you buy it centrally from somewhere that does not disclose what you are buying and you are more than likely funding the very thing you do not want.
Better to consider who is interested in creating what you desire and paying them to do it.
Or so I think.
This is enough, there are other things that need my attention. I am glad I stopped by. Thank you for the pleasant diversion.
🙂
Tim Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit Tim
What I reckon is that global warming is probably the scourge that will do it. Until recently much of the CO2 we released has been absorbed by the oceans and warming offset by other environmental disasters – global dimming and deforestation. Global dimming is when particles of pollution casued increased cloud without rain that blocks sunlight hitting the ground. As well as lowering temperatures, it reduces evaporation causing reduced rainfall, increased desertification. Forests produce a lot of methane which is a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2 but methane eventually breaks down (oxidises).
So while these offsetting factors have or will soon peak and decline (once there is no more forest to remove) CO2 production is accelerating.
I reckon that the environment that my grandchildren inherit depend on the amount of fossil fuel that we leave in the ground. We are probably going to burn all the oil and then make more out of tar sands and shale. I think that the economics of transport dictate that. But there is no need to burn all the coal. It is mostly used for electricity and we have a viable alternative – Nuclear. And it’s much safer. Don’t believe me? It’s carcinogenic. It kills about 6000 chinese miners per year alone. It has a nasty waste product (ash).
I reckon that of all countries in the world, Australia is best placed to change this. First we could convert all our electricity production to Nuclear. Lead by example.
More importantly, we can alter the global economics of coal and nuclear. If we allowed more uranium exploration and mining, its price would fall. This would alter the economics of electricity for all producers. And we can raise the price of coal. Ban coal exploration, new mines and tax every tonne that come out of the ground. Italy, the UK, USA etc would all consider more nuclear power plants and less coal-fired ones.
The nuclear risk is hypothetical, the greenhouse risk is happening.
So every greenie trying to stop the chainsaws going through old growh forests should stop this. Climate change is going to wipe-out the forest soon enough anyway. Instead they should blockade coal mines and coal power stations.
Coal – leave it in the ground.
Linda Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit Linda
Gee Mark,
You were always the thinker but I never knew that all this was going on…
So amazing to see this and also the thoughts of JK and Paul and B (that you, Rhett??). Well there’s only 2 years to go now. I hope you”re wrong, as I want my little guy to experience a beautiful world, and he’s only 5. Sending you much love (if you ever read this). Lindaxx
Richard Trendy Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit Richard Trendy
We do not really know when the world will end. We must not assume because many people will be affected and they might believe in it.
Kelvin Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit Kelvin
Yeah nice topic for discussion, everyone knows the world will end and some of the thing mention by scientist come true
Greg Sullivan Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit Greg Sullivan
I reckon global warming is the very last thing that we should be worrying about.
Please refer to Professor Lindzen, here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/17/richard-lindzen-a-case-against-precipitous-climate-action/
and his report (for the technical minded), which I *believe* is here:
http://www.masterresource.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Lindzen_Choi_APJAS_final.pdf
If he’s right, the sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is a piddling 0.7 deg C, *and*, the feedback is *negative*, not positive like the IPCC assumed. Also, the response is logarithmic, so the greater the concentration, the less effect any incremental increase has. So, that 0.7 figure applies for a doubling, not matter what the current concentration is.
With such a low sensitivity, heck, we’ll be out of fossil fuel before there’s been appreciable warming. Either that, or Google will have optimised away all human life anyway.
So that’s temperature out of the way – done and dusted.
What about ocean acidification? Well, if this site is to be trusted: http://www.co2science.org/data/acidification/results.php
We don’t have a problem with that *either*.
The IPCC have a lot to answer for.
Now, for some light reading, I urge you to read the following:
Professor John Christy’s testimony to Congress regarding the IPCC. (a *lot* of information here)
http://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/hearings/ChristyJR_written_110331_all.pdf
His testimony on “extreme events”:
http://republicans.energycommerce.house.gov/Media/file/Hearings/Energy/030811/Christy.pdf
Finally, this most interesting work in progress. This guy has figured out that there is a very close correlation between the time-integral of the sun-spot count, the effective sea-surface-temperature, and the overall global mean temperature:
http://climaterealists.com/attachments/ftp/Climatechangeisdominatedbynaturalphenomena.pdf
It may turn out to be a total crock, but it sure looks exciting. I hope he’s right, and if he is, I hope he gets a Nobel Prize.
Whoh.
Made Ariana Says:
May 2nd, 2005 at 5:05 pmVisit Made Ariana
Mr. Mark, the world has no ending. Energy conservation laws, promised that.
Greg Sullivan Says:
January 8th, 2018 at 8:34 amVisit Greg Sullivan
I mentioned the theory about sun-spots & cloud cover in my previous reply – here’s a new paper on this subject:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/19/new-svensmark-paper-the-missing-link-between-cosmic-rays-clouds-and-climate-on-earth/
Whoh.